Wishful thinking
Living Japan makes earthquakes very much a part of regular life. So much so that you actually become used to them.
I remember my first Tokyo earthquake. I was in a meeting with a number of Japanese men when suddenly the room started to rock and sway. I stopped whatever it was I was doing and just sat there wide-eyed and mouth open, glancing nervously left and right, expecting the building to come crashing down upon us at any time. When the earth finally stopped moving under our feet, I realized that none of the other people, native Tokyoites all, had even notice the temblor.
Sometimes, when I read the predictions that the government issues about what will happen if a major earthquake hits Tokyo, I get the feeling that the people writing the reports also may be a bit jaded when it comes to earthquakes.
Recently, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government issued a new earthquake report in which it predicted that only 4,700 people would be killed should a 7.3 magnitude earthquake hit the center of Tokyo.
4,700 people. . . They’ve either got to be kidding or just lying to make people feel good. . . Like those Mickey Mouse disaster drills they do with one or two fire engines and a few people on the ground here and there playing the parts of the “victims.”
The Tokyo metropolitan area is home to 35 million people - one-fourth the population of the entire country. Back in 1923, an 8.3-magnitude quake killed 142,000 people. More recently, in 1995, an earthquake claimed 6,400 lives in Kobe. Common sense math says that a major earthquake in Tokyo will kill a whole lot more than 4,700 people
Where is Peter Hadfield these days. He would know. [Author of popular book about THE DAY THE BIG QUAKE HITS TOKYO]
February 21st, 2006 at 12:50 amSixty Seconds That Will Change the World: The Coming Tokyo Earthquake (Hardcover)
by Peter Hadfield
Says one reviewer: “I am astonished this book is out of print. Unlike most books warning of future calamities, this one’s subject, a great earthquake devastating Tokyo and surrounding towns on the Kanto plain, is virtually certain to happen. The only question is “When?”. The answer would appear to be, “Any time at all, now.”, given the fact that detailed record-keeping shows a tremendous earthquake strikes this area about every seventy years, and that the last one was on September 1, 1923! Japan is the world’s most severe-earthquake-prone area.
February 21st, 2006 at 12:52 amThe author sets forth, in harrowing detail, not only what may be expected when the catastrophe occurs, but what may be expected to precede and, even more importantly, to follow the temblor.”
Another reviewer back in 1998 said: “I have two copies of this book — one at home and one at the office. I plan to use it as a handy reference for when the “Big One” hits Tokyo for my reporting. Hadfield, a geologist-turned-journalist has done his homework and paints a very sober picture of the ramifications from a huge quake in Japan on the people who live here and the world economy.
February 21st, 2006 at 12:53 amI have to say im not very happy with this article, much as i wasn’t in the podcast. The comparison to Kobe is infact over 10years old. The Kobe earthquake was 7.2 pretty much identical to the predicted one with a population of 1.5million. Add in 10years development and i don’t think its too far fetched. The figure is probably a little low but i don’t think its by that much.
Also the actual city of Tokyo is estimated to have a population of just over 12million.
Oh and i can see no reason at all to have the 1923 statistics there. That was over 80years ago and a much bigger earthquake, it isn’t even slightly comparable and so i don’t understand why you included it.
February 21st, 2006 at 1:44 amTom, did you read the recent articles about shoddy construction in buildings in Tokyo? I would say the number is low as well.
February 21st, 2006 at 3:25 amYea, but thats assuming the big one hits before that is sorted out.
February 21st, 2006 at 3:50 amThere are so many variables that it is simply impossible to say how many people a 7.3 quake will kill. What time does it hit? How long does it last? Where exactly does it hit? Which direction does the shaking go? 7.3 tells you next to nothing.
And then there are the construction questions. While there are many shoddy buildings, there are many more well constructed buildings.
A 7.3 quake could kill a half dozen people or several thousand.
1923 is not relevant to today. We may as well compare Tokyo to back-country China if we do that. Kobe is relevant, but still no two earthquakes are alike.
A quake the size of the one that hit Fukuoka last year was projected to have killed 2000. In fact it killed one unfortunate old woman.
The places worst affected by quakes are either undeveloped countries with substandard infrastructure, or places where quakes are not commonly expected (such as Kobe). For that matter, St. Louis sits near the worst quake ever recorded in North America, an 8.1 magnitude.
Still, a natural disaster is by definition unpreventable, so there is not much point in overly fretting about it.
February 21st, 2006 at 10:25 amIf it’s relevancy to Tokyo you want, why are you talking about Fukuoka?
February 21st, 2006 at 11:53 amExplain yourself, anonymous. How is it not relevant? And can I assume you think St. Louis 200 years ago IS relevant?
February 21st, 2006 at 12:06 pmMy first earthquake happened about half way through my first mug of Japanese beer.
DAMN! What do they put in this stuff?!
February 21st, 2006 at 3:26 pmArgh.
March 7th, 2006 at 12:07 amThe building in that photo is an exact replica of the one I’m in now.
Why did I move here again?