The fizzling population bomb

Once upon a time, the Japanese used a trite but true formulation to describe their country to foreigners: “Japan is a small, mountainous island country with a high population density and few natural resources.” Those of us who were students of the language or had an interest in the country heard it so often from well-meaning people that it stopped registering.
That’s one reason why I’ve been quietly puzzled for the past few years about the dire warnings in Japan and overseas about the country’s declining population. If you’re serious about that self-introduction, having fewer people around might not be such a bad idea, right?
Well, it turns out I’m not the only one to think so. In George Will’s most recent column about Japan, he quotes two unidentified “senior officials”, and then adds his own comment:
(One senior official) asks, “Why should we increase our population?” …(T)hat is not a foolish question. In 1920 Japan’s population was 56 million. Today it is 127.5 million on a land mass the size of California (population: 36 million) that is three-quarters mountainous. A third official, noting that Japan imports 60 percent of its staple foods, says, “It might be good to have a declining population” of, say, 100 million by 2050.
But that creates another problem: Who pays for all the welfare benefits? Will’s full column, called “Japan’s Wrenching Choices”, is here.
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September 7th, 2006 at 9:33 pmWho pays for future benefits? No one. Current workers will probably have to muddle their own way through retirement, using what private/coroprate pensions they have mixed in with any state benefits.
All pension systems are screwed because people paid for future generations, not themselves. This sounds completely brutal, but really one generation should be forced to sort themselves out. Then at least the pension problem would disappear because we would all pay for own own pensions.
Not to say that people should get nothing upon retirement for 20-30 years, but it will be the case that they will have to make do with much less.
September 7th, 2006 at 10:43 pmGee, Amp, I guess the spelling is as loose as the logic over there on the Left Flank…
September 7th, 2006 at 11:39 pmThe Economist actually had some great coverage on this some time ago. It said that the declining population would prove an excellent opportunity to get more women and older people involved in work. If that is coupled with better provision for child-care by employers, that should reduce the strain on pensions while not reducing the birth-rate any further.
The articles are below:
http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?story_id=7025130
http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?story_id=5139195
However, they’re only available to people with Economist subscriptions - sorry if you don’t have one.
September 8th, 2006 at 1:49 am