As some of you may know, I’ve been following the increasingly outrageous developments in the anti-whaling lobby’s attempts to harass and disable ships of Japan’s whaler fleet operating in the Southern Ocean. Previously, we’ve seen the ominous-sounding ‘can-opener’ device exploited by activists attempting to sabotage Japanese ships at sea and there was even an incident involving acid being hurled onto the decks of a whaling vessel. The feisty ‘Sea Shepherd’ campaigners have been stepping up their tactics and deployments in the frozen seas off Antarctica for the last couple of years, but next year they may have some much better equipped allies joining them.

I speak, of course, of Australian opposition leader Kevin Rudd’s plan to deploy Royal Australian Navy warships to the Southern Ocean to protect the whales by intercepting and boarding Japanese whaling ships.

Seriously.

Mr Rudd has declared that the present government’s attempts to restrict Japanese whaling activities through diplomacy and various multilateral organisations like the IWC have not been working and that it’s time to “step it up a bit”. Yes, Kevin, an act of state piracy, and quite possibly war, on the high seas would indeed be “stepping it up a bit”.

This is by far the most ludicrous and counterproductive prescription to halt whaling in the Southern Ocean ever.

Okay, I’m no fan of Japan’s transparent attempts to dress up their commercial whaling activities as “science”. No, I’ll go further; I am offended that the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, and its mouthpiece the Centre for Cetacean Research, expects the outside world to swallow its clearly made-up drivel. That said, Mr Rudd clearly hasn’t thought through his plan or its consequences – alarming when you consider that this bloke is a former diplomat and quite possibly the next Prime Minister of Australia.

The first problem is a simple question of legality. Australia does have the sovereign right to board and detain any fishing vessels, foreign or otherwise, caught illegally operating within the 200km exclusive economic zone (EEZ) off its coast. This is a right that is regularly exercised in the north to prevent Indonesian and other poachers from commercially fishing within Australian waters but has not been used in defence of the Australian-declared whale sanctuary in the Southern Ocean which lies roughly between the Australian continent and Australia’s Antarctic territory.

That’s because Japan doesn’t recognise Australia’s claims to Antarctica, and consequently, does not recognise the claim to sovereignty over large swathes of the Southern Ocean. In fact, not many countries do. Because of this, if the matter were brought before the International Court of Justice, its finding would invariably be that the ‘whale sanctuary’ lies in international waters and that Australia has no sovereign right to interfere with or board foreign vessels. To do so would be legitimately viewed as an act of piracy.

The second problem is one that should be well understood by Mr Rudd, an apparent expert in international affairs. What would the Japanese response to such a policy be? Would they simply bow before Mr Rudd’s aggressive and warlike stance? Or would they be tempted to test Australia’s claims in the ICJ, win, cause serious embarrassment to Canberra, and continue whaling just as they had done before, maybe even “step it up a bit” and catch a few extra ‘cause they can?

Another, more frightening prospect would be a decision from Tokyo to send a Japan Maritime Self Defence Force contingent to protect the Japanese fleet. This would present the nasty possibility of the two forces facing each other down at sea with all the inherent risks of mistakes, miscalculation and escalation that brings. An unlikely scenario, to be sure, but not altogether impossible.

The third problem is that Australia’s navy is already undermanned and, while not quite overstretched, has many other commitments in addition to being on alert to respond to a real crisis in the region. Its resources are not well spent protecting animals that are not even within Australia’s internationally recognised territory from an ally with whom Canberra recently signed an historic security agreement.

This whole plan smacks of opportunistic populism in an election year with the potential to badly backfire and cause serious damage to Australia-Japan relations.

But Mr Rudd is a crafty one.

It is possible that in pledging to enforce Australian anti-whaling laws within Australia’s Southern Ocean territory, he is referring to the EEZ around tiny Macquarie and Heard Islands which are recognised as Australian. But then, virtually no whaling takes place in these areas that constitute a mere fraction of the Southern Ocean whale-hunting-ground/sanctuary. I sincerely hope that this is his real plan.

The 2006-07 Durex Global Sexual Wellbeing survey has found the Japanese to be the most infrequent lovers in the world. Against a global average of sex 106 times a year, denizens of the land of the rising sun could only manage the ‘horizontal Hapi dance’ 48 times.

Furthermore, only 10% of Japanese describe their sex life as ‘exciting’ compared to the global average of 49% and were also “well below the world average for time spent on intercourse.”

So what’s going on over there?

I urge all of you in Japan to get out there and do your part to lift this appalling result for next year’s survey. I personally am contributing by planning a special ‘aid’ mission to Japan in order to boost the statistics. Let’s all pitch in and do our part and to improve the sexual wellbeing of Japan!

Yesterday was the big day. Australia and Japan will formalised their growing security and defence ties in Tokyo when Prime Ministers Abe and Howard signed the so-called ‘Joint Declaration on Security’ transforming Australia into, not only one of Japan’s largest sources of minerals, food and energy, but also its key security collaborator, second only to the US. The agreement covers counter-terrorism, joint defence exercises, disaster relief cooperation, intelligence sharing, maritime anti-piracy cooperation and more.

It’s a bold move for both countries, quietly encouraged by the US, and symbolically takes place exactly 50 years after Canberra and Tokyo normalised trade relations after the war. That agreement, incidentally, was signed by Shinzo Abe’s grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi, who happened to be Japanese PM at the time. Symbolism overload.

Does Beijing perceive this as the next step by the US and others to gradually encircle China and threaten its interests? Nope. At least, not anyone with any sense – Shen Dingli of Fudan University in Shanghai is “not concerned at all” about it:

If China wanted to invade Japan, Australia would come to Japan’s aid, and if China were to invade Australia, Japan would come to its aid. But if we don’t invade either of them, such a pact doesn’t really work against China’s legitimate interests.

In fact, Shen’s a pretty relaxed bloke and not too much seems to concern him. What about Japan’s refusal to properly acknowledge and atone for its wartime atrocities?

I don’t think we should worry about that either. Japan tends to humiliate itself in this regard

If only others were likewise relaxed and laid-back.

The Nisshin Maru seems to have given Sea Shepherd the slip, but the smaller Kaiko Maru found itself squarely in the Robert Hunter’s sights. A ramming incident occurred in which both ships were damaged and each now claims that the other was responsible. Apparently there is video footage of this, but I have been unable to find it.

For now there seems to be a truce of sorts as the Sea Shepherd group prepares to depart Antarctic waters with dwindling fuel supplies. The organisation also dropped a threat by Captain or “Cap’n” (he IS captain of a pirate ship, after all) Paul Watson to have the Farley Mowat ram the Nisshin Maru. . . if he could find the damn thing, that is.

So it appears to be all over for this year. None too soon, I might add, and with limited casualties. But seriously, who throws acid? What are they? Bond Villains?

Cap’n Watson, despite his reckless tactics, has a point when he talks about next year’s planned hunt of fin and humpback whales. Opposition to whaling from the anti-whaling nations led by Australia and New Zealand will intensify.

Now I have some problems with whaling. In principal, I don’t disagree with the minke hunt, as these are not endangered animals and could be harvested in a sustainable fashion. However, it is very difficult to hunt them humanely. Say what you want about battery hens and cattle slaughter, the torturous, sometimes as long as 30 minute death by grenade-tipped harpoon of a highly intelligent creature in front of its family grouping is not something I’m comfortable with.

The second problem is with the fin and humpback whales. Fin whales, in contrast to the minke whales, are endangered and the humpback is listed as vulnerable. I would hope that I don’t have to defend the view that a species formally listed as endangered should not be commercially hunted (and lets be honest, the hunt is commercial). The humpback, and this is where I would deviate from scientific to more emotional and personal reasoning, should also not be hunted and there will be renewed and forceful opposition from Australia on this.

I grew up on the east coast of Australia and every year watched the humpbacks on their annual migration from the frozen Southern Ocean to the warm breeding waters of the Queensland coast. They would return with their calves a few months later, remaining always close to the continent and visible to commercial tour operators and recreational whale-watchers. Most would recognise certain whales that return year after year and have names for specific members of the pod. The prospect that these humpbacks, so well-known and beloved of coastal dwelling Australians, could be slaughtered and served as dog food in Japan is distressing to many.

But I will concede that this is not a rational justification for preventing the humpback hunt. It is not a cold and removed assessment of whether Japan should be allowed to hunt these majestic creatures based on economic or ecological principles. They’re only listed as vulnerable after all.

The anti-whaling Sea Shepherd activists finally tracked down and engaged the Japanese southern whaling fleet over the weekend in waters off Antarctica. Crew from the Sea Shepherd’s second ship, the agile Robert Hunter, launched a dinghy assault aimed at fouling the “research” ship Nisshin Maru’s propeller and disabling it while their colleagues lobbed smoke grenades and even acid at their enemies.

The attempt to sabotage the whaling vessel failed, but the dinghy operators were separated from the action and not recovered until after an exhausting seven-hour search in sub-zero temperatures carried out jointly by the activists and whalers. The two men were unharmed but could have easily died in the extreme weather. Aboard the Nisshin Maru, two crewmen were reportedly injured, one with cuts and the other with acid in his eye. Ouch.

Things are pretty serious down there this year, the Sea Shepherd has doubled the size of its fleet and is even sporting a helicopter and unmanned aerial surveillance units in their efforts to track and disable the Japanese whaling operations. I just hope no one gets hurt next time these two groups clash.

As reported here on Japundit, Canberra and Tokyo are indeed taking important steps towards far-reaching security and defence cooperation. Read all about it here, and see an interesting discussion of its merits here.

This is a huge step for both countries, but perhaps more so for Japan. While not a full treaty, this will still be Japan’s first bilateral defence agreement with any nation besides the United States and is a reflection of Tokyo’s growing willingness to behave as an independent, or ‘normal’, security actor in the increasingly uncertain neighbourhood of North-East Asia. The public’s reaction to the agreement will also be a key litmus test for PM Abe’s plans to alter the pacifist constitution to allow for a more assertive Japan in foreign affairs. Some Japanese resist even the US-Japan alliance and would certainly be unwilling to have their country enter into new defence relationships, but the belligerence of North Korea leads many more to agree that Japan needs to seek out more security cooperation with a variety of new friends.

Meanwhile, China is undoubtedly cautious about the prospect of the agreement developing into some kind of containment bloc working in conjunction with the Australia-US-Japan Trilateral Strategic Dialogue, about which it already harbours grave reservations. But, for that matter, China is most likely worried about Japan signing new security pacts with anyone at all.

For Australia, the most contentious aspect of the wide-ranging agreement is the possibility that it will include provisions for joint military exercises on Australian soil. Many Australians still remember WWII, in which Sydney harbour was attacked and the northern city of Darwin was bombed. There are understandable sensitivities with regards to allowing SDF units to train on Australian soil with Australian soldiers, but staunchly conservative Prime Minister Howard has played down such fears saying:

I don’t think Australians would mightily object to it, I really don’t.

He also recalled the warm reception by the Australian public towards the successful military cooperation between ADF and SDF units serving in Iraq last year. Even the Returned Servicemen League (RSL) has come out in support of the agreement, and it seems that this kind of ‘war nostalgia’ sentiment is unlikely to hinder its development from the Australian side.

John Howard will visit Japan next month and it seems likely that the deal will be hammered out in time for a signing ceremony in Tokyo for when the two leaders meet. I so called this one.

As noted on Japundit, Prime Minister Abe recently attended the ASEAN-led East Asia Summit in Cebu, Philippines. These regional talkfests have presented sterling opportunities for Abe to quietly engage with his disgruntled neighbours on the sidelines, as he did with China and South Korea at last year’s APEC summit meeting in Hanoi. Cebu was no different.

Following his visits to China and Korea soon after his selection as Japanese PM, there has been a definite thawing of the frosty relations between the three and, in Cebu, Abe has even managed to secure a visit to Japan in April by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, the first by a Chinese leader in six years. Abe will also visit China later this year, underscoring his commitment to further improving bilateral ties between the two.

Abe’s diplomatic successes have led some to speculate that China and Japan may at last be coming together, indeed, the headline in today’s Australian reads “Japan and China cement their friendship”.

Well, there can be no doubt that Abe has managed to improve the relationship, but it must be remembered that he was starting from an extremely low base. It would have been difficult for relations to get much worse without leading to outright hostilities. Rather than “friendship”, perhaps what Japan and China are moving towards is more accurately described as civility. This pundit does not view a Sino-Japanese rapprochement as likely or even desirable within the foreseeable future.

Let me explain briefly one reason why this is so.

It is undeniable that economic forces are pulling the two countries closer together, but even stronger forces of geo-politics will ensure that they remain at arms length from one another. The underlying reason for this is that each country, and also the US, has an interest in maintaining some degree of hostility in Sino-Japanese relations.

From the Chinese point of view, Japan is a bogeyman employed in the language of nationalist rhetoric to unite, motivate and frighten the masses as well as providing some external justification for Communist Party rule. There are countless examples of this as seen most recently in widespread anti-Japanese riots, anger over Japanese textbooks and interpretations of history more generally, and a blunt unwillingness to accept any of the countless Japanese apologies for its wartime atrocities. These problems will not be easily remedied and are, in fact, intentionally prolonged by China.

Similarly, in Japan, nationalism is a growing force and many politicians are not afraid to use China as a whipping boy in their bids to ferment a general mood of popular patriotism. Abe himself is no stranger to this particular method, though, notably and understandably his tone has mellowed since taking the helm of the LDP.

The role of the US in this is perhaps the most complex, but can be summed up thusly: enduring tension between China and Japan is a key precondition for the continued US presence in East Asia. The unlikely event of a Sino-Japanese rapprochement would be a nightmare for US strategic policy. If those two great nations were ever to come together, the role of the US in East Asia would be redundant and it would likely be expelled from the Western Pacific altogether, having become an unnecessary evil.

Without elaborating extensively on this point, I have waffled at length already, it can be seen how the interests of many nations are served by enduring tension between Beijing and Tokyo. There are certainly arguments that the Koreas, and even Russia too, benefit from hostile relations. Of course, nobody wants a war and that must be avoided at all costs, but keeping Sino-Japanese relations tense contributes to stability in East Asia and helps to preserve the status quo.

What a way to go. . .

This piece was originally submitted late last year, but due to an oversite by JP it did not go up until now. Sorry for the delay.

A Japanese commission of inquiry has found that, during Shinzo Abe’s time as Chief LDP Cabinet Secretary, the party hosted more than 70 sham ‘public-forum’ style town meetings. At these meet-the-politicians events, government officials and even some random members of the public were paid to ask prearranged questions that would present the government in a positive light. The commission’s report raises the valid concern that “public opinion was being misled in order to instil government policy” in this serious manipulation of the electorate.

The nasty little finding comes on the back of already weak polling for Japan’s new PM and his ratings are sure to drop even further below their current 48.6% support as a result. After reasonable public approval during his initial honeymoon period as leader and early diplomatic breakthroughs with China and South Korea, voters are dissatisfied with Abe’s domestic agenda, particularly his decision to reinstate 11 former LDP members sacked by Koizumi overtheir opposition to the postal reforms.

Elections are not far off and a weak result (as indicated by the eight point drop in support over the last fortnight) has traditionally spelt the end for Japanese Prime Ministers. If Mr Abe loses enough seats, the LDP might very well turf him out of office and we could see a new PM in around eight months time. Koizumi he ain’t.

Well, at least Abe is attempting to make things right by pledging to forgo three months of his near half-million dollar salary as reparations. What a thoughtful young man.

One of Australia’s enduring WWII maritime mysteries has apparently been solved. During the Pacific War, elite Japanese submariners in their ‘midget’ vessels launched a daring raid on Sydney Harbour intending to sink a US ship that was docked there. Two of the midget submarines were intercepted and disabled, but the third managed to fire its torpedoes and, while missing its target, sunk another Allied vessel and killed 21 servicemen on board. The tiny sub then escaped the harbour and fled out to sea, but failed to rendezvous with its Japanese mother ship which was waiting off the coast. The fate of the submarine was, until now, unknown.

After around 24 ultimately mistaken claims by different groups that they had discovered the wreck since then (including one featured in a History Channel documentary last year), a bunch of amateur divers from Sydney finally located the real deal. The wreckage is just north of Sydney, still above the sea floor and has had its identity confirmed by Royal Australian Navy historians. Its discovery closes the book on one of Australia’s most elusive and important wartime enigmas and the site will be marked as a Japanese war grave to honour the brave submariners who took part in the raid.

Japan’s annual Southern Ocean whale hunt is a huge issue here in Australia as the hunt takes place in Antarctic waters that Australia claims to be its own. This is a claim that Japan does not recognise, allowing the fleet to carry on with its questionable “scientific research activities.”

Well, if whaling doesn’t get the assorted hippies and eco-warriors riled up enough, there’s now this:

In Japanese villages each year, local fishermen hunt for large numbers of dolphins by herding them into shallow coves and then, scientists say, attacking them with knives and even eviscerating them alive. (full story here)

Now apparently this is an “ancient custom” of some sort, so it’s possible that this has been going on for quite some time and I’ve only just heard about it, but come on. Killing dolphins with knives?! Who does that?

Just as with whaling, this issue is a headache for the Japan Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Japan would be a near perfect international citizen if not for the black mark awarded for the continuation of commercial whaling unconvincingly dressed up as research. MOFA and the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries do not see eye-to-eye on this issue to put it lightly.

MAFF is a constant source of diplomatic embarrassment for Japan and MOFA as its representatives bumble about on the world stage decrying a sinister green conspiracy directed against them and then hand paper bags full of cash to flyspeck Caribbean/Pacific states in return for votes at the IWC. Their behaviour is inept and ludicrous, and I can’t wait to see how they will defend the dolphin slaughter. Even if the dubious argument that “dolphins compete with humans for fish and therefore we should kill them” can be accepted, is it really necessary to stab them with knives?

This year Australia’s premier horse-racing event, the Melbourne Cup, featured a line-up of overseas talent including two star Japanese fillies, Delta Blues and Pop Rock. Last year another Japanese horse, complete with bizarre black face mask, ‘Eye-popper’, was one of the favourites and the first Japanese horse to enter the competition.

As some may know the Japanese horse racing, breeding, and training industry has taken off over the last decade or so and has been dominated by the ubiquitous Yoshida brothers. Both Delta Blues and Pop Rock are linked to stables owned by the Yoshidas who recently outbid an Arab Sheik to secure a promising filly for the record price of $US5.2 million.

It wasn’t the mere fact that two Japanese horses would be present in Australia’s most famous race, it was more the fact that they took out first and second place (Delta Blues and Pop Rock respectively) that sends a signal to the horse-racing world about the strength of Japan’s racing industry.

Unfortunately, while Japan’s horses and trainers are enjoying phenomenal success abroad, not only in Australia but in North America and Europe too, foreign trainers have an extremely hard time getting a piece of the action in Japan. The Yoshidas seem unwilling to share their turf with gai-ba (foreign horses)!

It appears that underground North Korean nuclear test bombs are not the only thing exploding, as former Australian prime minister Paul Keating demonstrated during a tremendous brain explosion yesterday during a speech he delivered to a banking conference. He used the occasion to warn of the possibility of Japan developing its own nuclear weapons capability in response to the DPRK’s tests:

My great concern is that Japan may use the impasse of North Korea and this testing of its nuclear weapons to move into nuclear weapons itself, eschewing the nuclear protection provided to it by the United States under its umbrella. Such an outcome would be affronting and confronting to the Chinese, encouraging them to adopt an altogether different posture in respect of Japa. And if China adopts an altogether different posture in respect to Japan, the world we know today changes.

Mr Keating is certainly not alone in this fear and he should take some solace in Shinzo Abe’s Diet statement to the effect that Japan would not consider an independent nuclear capability.

While uncertainty surrounding a possible Japanese weapons program is nothing new, what Keating said next defies reality. He claimed that the Chinese government is “the most competent in the world” and “would leave any OECD government for dead.” What the…??!! Surely not more competent than your government was Mr. Keating?

Brain explosion number one complete, Keating continues:

It is my sincere hope that problems in the Korean peninsula can be satisfactorily dealt with and that Japan, despite its insularity and deep-seated problems… will find common cause with its largest and nearest neighbour in China.

BOOM!!! So it’s Japan that has “deep-seated” problems rather than North Korea or that fundamentally corrupt and authoritarian regime in Beijing? Has the whole world gone crazy? Has Keating completely lost it?

Not quite. A closer look at Keating’s life post-politics reveals that he derives “considerable income from his business interests in China” and “had a consultancy providing advice to companies in China.” He also had some involvement with an insurance brokering deal in China. Small wonder he’s keen to impress upon the Chinese government his ‘pro-Beijing’ line on Japan.

Veteran Japanese politician and recent politically-motivated arson attack victim, Koichi Kato, has warned a group of assembled foreign journalists that Japanese militarism and nationalism is on the rise. In his speech to the Foreign Correspondents Club in Tokyo, Kato likened Japan’s morally detached youngsters to helium balloons floating on air currents;

“Even in the slightest breeze they will all start floating in the same direction,” the one-time prime ministerial candidate said.

“And if there is a nationalistic mood that takes over the country, all of these balloons will begin to drift in a very strong way along this current.”

The newspaper story can be found here, and no surprise that this was reported by the Sydney Morning Herald/Melbourne Age’s Deborah Cameron, whose articles frequently take a negative view of Japanese politics. She continues in her story to outline such ominous signs of the rising tide of neo-nationalism in Japan as “foreigners being targeted by police in anti-crime crackdowns.” Since when was this a new phenomenon?

During a recent visit to Tokyo by Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer, Cameron missed the substantial positive outcomes of his meeting with Taro Aso instead choosing to focus in her write-up on the fact that Downer is the son of a POW held in a Japanese camp while Aso’s family had used POW slave labour during the war. Tellingly, none of the other major Australian dailies carried a story along these lines and it seems that while Downer himself has long since moved on from the issue, Deborah Cameron has not.

As September 20th fast approaches, with it comes the resignation of one of Japan’s most successful, controversial and important Prime Ministers. But what, if anything, will be the lasting effect of Junichiro Koizumi’s tenure in office? Japan has had countless flash-in-the-pan, post war leaders and who is to say that the Koizumi era has been anything more than yet another trademark Japanese fad? Australia’s respected think tank, The Lowy Institute for one.

In a brief analysis paper released this week, the Institute’s Malcolm Cook outlines the significance of the Koizumi Prime Ministership and the lasting effects that it will have on Japanese politics into the future. Cook argues that Central to understanding Koizumi’s legacy is to understand that he is primarily a political reformer, not an economic reformer or foreign affairs prime minister. He adds, somewhat amusingly, that “Koizumi’s more relaxed style of dress and more elaborate hairstyle are all part of this call for a new Japan.”

The most demonstrable impacts on Japanese politics throughout Koizumi’s half decade of power have been party reform; “reforming the LDP into a more modern and politically palatable party to reassert its dominance of the political mainstream has been Koizumi’s leadership focus and his greatest success,” a clear right wing shift by the Democratic Party in its attempts at opposition through imitation, and the noticeably more assertive and self confident Japanese international policy, which mirrors Koizumi’s domestic style.

Cook concludes that there will be long-lasting and far-reaching shifts in the conduct of Japanese politics post-Koizumi; “Koizumi will be stepping down but his shadow of influence will loom large and long.”

The full paper can be found here.

The security relationship between Australia and Japan is blossoming and Canberra is fast becoming Tokyo’s ‘number two’ ally. As the successful cooperation between Australian troops and Japanese SDF engineers in Iraq winds up, Dr Brendan Nelson, the Australian Defence Minister had this to say in The Australian Financial Review:

“Japan was very impressed with the support Australia was able to provide their engineers in Al Muthanna,” he told The Australian Financial Review.

“Australia, too, has been pleased with how well the deployment worked. I think you could see us working more closely with Japan on peacekeeping and other operations in the region in future”. . .

Dr Nelson said he believed more opportunities for collaboration would arise.

“Japan is still providing financial, airlift and aeromedical support in Iraq and I wouldn’t rule out seeing Tokyo back in some other capacity,” he said.

Japan going back to Iraq in “some other capacity”? A source in Dr. Nelson’s office has informed the Iron Chef that Australia would not be surprised if Tokyo authorised a second SDF provincial reconstruction team for dispatch to war-shattered Iraq in future.